Backdoor: Wide Open. Week 1. Let’s Cook.

I mean look at this shit, its absolutely stacked.

Intro

Week 0 had some weird-ass games. Oh, and by the way—fuck Stanford for absolutely running up penalties and effectively beating themselves. The Kansas State–Iowa State game was a tough watch too: Dylan Edwards went down early and the weather was downright awful. It turned into a full-on TO fest. Kansas swiftly dealt with Fresno State, and WKU dominated Sam Houston.

Week 0 — THE MODEL RESULTS (1–3)

• Kansas State -3.5 ❌

• Kansas -12.5 ✔️

• Sam Houston +9.5 ❌

• Stanford +1.5 ❌

So yeah, not off to a hot start—and I’m defending my baby in the paragraph above. Lay off, dude.

WEEK 1 PICKS, BABY. LET’S GOOOO!!!

THE MODEL is updated and live—check the THE MODEL tab. Weekly performances now roll into rating adjustments, so we’ll see how that goes, lol.

We’re running through every FBS vs FBS game according to THE MODEL. Hell no, I didn’t include FCS schools—that’s way more work.

Below: the full board by THE MODEL, plus the plays we’re personally firing on. Strap in. (also will probably not be writing as much for each matchup as their are 40+ of them)

WEEK 1

Boise St @ South Florida

This one could shock you, watch out... it's gonna be sticky in Tampa. Model: Boise St -3 | Line: Boise St -5.5 (-122) Lean: South Florida +5.5 Ohio @ Rutgers The Parker Navarro show. Model: Rutgers -12.1 | Line: Rutgers -15.5 (-110) Lean: Ohio +15.5

Jacksonville St @ UCF Model: UCF -11.7 | Line: UCF -20.5 (-110) Lean: Jacksonville St +20.5 East Carolina @ NC St Model: NC St -11.7 | Line: NC St -14.5 (-105) Lean: East Carolina +14.5 Wyoming @ Akron Model: Wyoming -3.6 | Line: Wyoming -6.5 (-105) Lean: Akron +6.5 Holy dawg streak... Buffalo @ Minnesota This game is going to be a battle, or Minnesota truly proves their dominance this year.

Model: Minnesota -17.7 | Line: Minnesota -17.5 (-108) Lean: Minnesota -17.5 Nebraska @ Cincinnati Dylan Raiola (fat Mahomes) needs to get off on the right foot, too bad he gets Cincy on the road. Model: Nebraska -3.1 | Line: Nebraska -6.5 (-120) Lean: Cincinnati +6.5 Miami (OH) @ Wisconsin Model: Wisconsin -17.2 | Line: Wisconsin -17.5 (-110) Lean: Negligible (NO BET) Western Michigan @ Michigan St Let's go SPARTY!!! (please don't crush my heart and soul in a similar fashion to last years FAU opener) Model: Michigan St -15.8 | Line: Michigan St -20.5 (-110) Lean: Western Michigan +20.5 App St @ Charlotte Model: App St -2.7 | Line: App St -6.5 (-110) Lean: Charlotte +6.5 Auburn @ Baylor This game is a MUST WATCH IMO, the model is very high on both of these teams. Model: Auburn -3 | Line: Auburn -2.5 (-110) Lean: Auburn -2.5 Georgia Tech @ Colorado Colorado is so back, Salter is going to be gross here... Model: Colorado -3.6 | Line: Georgia Tech -4.5 (-118) Lean: Colorado +4.5 UNLV @ Sam Houston Dear god both these teams were bad in week 0, this game might make your eyes bleed. Model: UNLV -6.9 | Line: UNLV -9.5 (-115) Lean: Sam Houston +9.5 Central Michigan @ San Jose St Model: San Jose St -8.9 | Line: San Jose St -11.5 (-115) Lean: Central Michigan +11.5

Texas @ Ohio St

THE MODEL is LOW on Texas, and I think for good reason, we will see how Arch does away at the shoe against one of the best teams in the country. Model: Ohio St -5.4 | Line: Ohio St -2.5 (-110)

Lean: Ohio St -2.5

Syracuse @ Tennessee I'm high on Tennessee, and Syracuse lost to Stanford last year, take all that as you will. Model: Tennessee -11.8 | Line: Tennessee -13.5 (-115) Lean: Syracuse +13.5 Miss St @ Southern Miss I mean what an in-state rager here. Model: Miss St -16.8 | Line: Miss St -12.5 (-120) Lean: Miss St -12.5 Florida Atlantic @ Maryland Model: Maryland -13.3 | Line: Maryland -14.5 (-108) Lean: Florida Atlantic +14.5 Ball St @ Purdue If we are right about this we just found a value nuke, or we're completely lost. Model: Purdue -9.5 | Line: Purdue -18.5 (-110) Lean: I shouldn't have to tell you this one Northwestern @ Tulane Model: Tulane -7 | Line: Tulane -5.5 (-115) Lean Tulane: -5.5

Toledo @ Kentucky Model: Kentucky -15.3 | Line: Kentucky -9.5 (-110) Lean: Kentucky -9.5 Old Dominion @ Indiana Model: Indiana -21.5 | Line: Indiana -23.5 (-110) Lean: Old Dominion +23.5 Nevada @ Penn St Honestly these huge spread games are prolly going to screw up our record, but its about accuracy right? (NO) Model: Penn St -33 | Line: Penn St -44.5 (-115) Lean: Nevada +44.5 Marshall @ Georgia Another example, personal tip, I will not be touching these with a 10-foot pole. Model: Georgia -23.2 | Line: Georgia -39.5 (-110) Lean: Marshall +39.5 Alabama @ Florida St I think Alabama mops the floor with this Florida St team, but hey, maybe they'll be better than 2-10 this year. Model: Alabama -11 | Line: Alabama -13.5 (-114) Lean: Florida St +13.5 Temple @ UMass Model: Temple -1.9 | Line: Temple -2.5 (-106) Lean: UMass +2.5 Coastal Car @ Virginia Model: Virginia -9.2 | Line: Virginia -11.5 (-120) Lean: Coastal Car +11.5

LSU @ Clemson This is one of those season openers that might be the best game of the year, please Clemson don't lose 34-3 again... Model: LSU -3.8 | Line: Clemson -3.5 (-118) Lean: LSU +3.5 New Mexico @ Michigan Model: Michigan -27.4 | Line: Michigan -34.5 (-115) Lean: New Mexico +34.5 UTEP @ Utah St Model: Utah St -3.8 | Line: Utah St -5.5 (-122) Lean: UTEP +5.5 Georgia St @ Ole Miss Lets see if Ole Miss deserves to be ranked #3 in THE MODEL lmao... Model: Ole Miss -32 | Line: Ole Miss -35.5 (-110) Lean: Georgia St +35.5

Rice @ Louisiana Model: Louisiana -11.7 | Line: Louisiana -11.5 (-110) Lean: Negligible (NO BET)

Eastern Michigan @ Texas St Model: Texas St -11.5 | Line: Texas St -13.5 (-118) Lean: Eastern Michigan +13.5

UTSA @ Texas A&M Model: Texas A&M -20.1 | Line: Texas A&M -24.5 (+100) Lean: UTSA +24.5

Georgia So @ Fresno St Model: Georgia So -4.3 | Line: Georgia So -1.5 (-115) Lean: Georgia So -1.5 Cal @ Oregon St We got this one flipped... Model: Cal -2.4 | Line: Oregon St -2.5 (-110) Lean: Cal +2.5 Hawai'i @ Arizona Model: Arizona -13.2 | Line: Arizona -17.5 (-110) Lean: Hawai'i +17.5 Utah @ UCLA Lets see if those flashy new UCLA jerseys make Nico a better QB. Model: Utah -2.9 | Line: Utah -6.5 (-105) Lean: UCLA +6.5 Colorado St @ Washington Model: Washington -13.4 | Line: Washington -22.5 (-105) Lean: Colorado St +22.5 Va Tech @ South Carolina LaNorris Sellers vs. Kyron Drones a QB matchup of the ages week 1. Model: South Carolina -10.2 | Line: South Carolina -7.5 (-115) Lean: South Carolina -7.5 Notre Dame @ Miami Is CJ Carr that guy? Does Carson Beck have a Heisman season left in the tank, we'll find out quick. Model: Miami -5.9 | Line: Notre Dame -2.5 (-110) Lean: Miami +2.5 TCU @ North Carolina Will Bill Belichick be as good in CFB as he was in the NFL? Or is North Carolina's talent level going to hold him back? Model: North Carolina -0.4 | Line: TCU -3.5 (-105) Lean: North Carolina +3.5

🔒Backdoor Locks🔒 South Florida +5.5 (snag +6.5 if you can to get us over that semi-key number) Either way, I really like this South Florida team this year and so does THE MODEL. Boise was excellent last year—no one’s arguing that. They bring back a nasty OL core, but no Jeanty. I don’t care if you stick a god damn bulldozer at RB, you’re not replicating Ashton Jeanty’s production. He’s off to the NFL, period.

Malik Sherrod slides in after transferring from Fresno State (966 yards & 9 TDs back in ’23), and yeah, he’s legit—but still not Jeanty. Maddux Madsen is the real deal and even got tagged MWC preseason Offensive POY, so the Broncos aren’t exactly falling off a cliff.

USF? Absolute electric factory at QB. Byrum Brown is back—he missed eight games after a Sept. 28 injury last year—but when healthy he’s a walking box-score freak. In 2023 he put up 3,292 passing yards, 26 TDs, and 11 rushing TDs. Dude’s gross. The Bulls also beefed up the defense with experienced transfers and have more returning pieces up front than they’re getting credit for—enough to at least make Boise earn every yard in sticky Tampa.

Bottom line: the market is pricing a lot of last year’s Boise aura. This year’s matchup is closer than people think—and it’s going to be humid as hell for 4 miserable quarters.

Ohio St. ML -120 (I would play this up to -130) I genuinely think a No. 1 AP tag for Texas is a curse disguised as a gift. THE MODEL doesn’t have an Arch Manning booster—just talent and performance—so spare me the hype. I’ve got Ohio State with the edge.

Texas offense: They lost a ton at WR to the NFL. Matthew Golden and Isaiah Bond are gone, and Jaydon Blue left for the league, too. I don’t care how you spin it—that’s real production to replace. The RB room is still strong, sure, but those wideout losses matter.

Texas defense: It’s legit—again. The secondary is the strength with Malik Muhammad and Michael Taaffe headlining; they’ve got good LBs and added portal juice off the edge. The interior DL is the one grey spot if there is one.

The Arch factor: Arch has "fairly" limited starting reps and most of his real action came at home (DKR). The résumé so far isn’t exactly a gauntlet. Now it’s the Shoe in Week 1—hostile as hell.

Ohio State: Julian Sayin gets the green light—yeah, first start, but he’s surrounded by stupid talent. On offense you’ve got Jeremiah Smith; on defense, Caleb Downs and a top-tier secondary. LB/DT are the questions, but the back end can erase a lot.

Bottom line: Texas is priced with a public Arch tax I don't think the spread should even be this close. OSU’s roster balance + home field → I’m on the Buckeyes. Miami ML +120 (play to +110, much like the OSU spread 2.5 misses a key number so ML is the safer play) Miami feels built to make life easy on a quarterback. Carson Beck didn’t come here to babysit a rebuild—he came to rip. He’s got a mean offensive line in front of him (Francis Mauigoa & co.) and a real receiver room headlined by C.J. Daniels. Add Mark Fletcher Jr. and Jordan Lyle pounding away behind that line and, yeah, Beck’s not going to be short on time or targets.

Defensively, the Canes aren’t perfect, but the arrow’s pointing up. Rueben Bain Jr. sets the tone off the edge, the corners got a portal bump with Charles Brantley and Xavier Lucas, and the interior has big dudes (David Blay Jr., Artavius Jones) who can keep the linebackers clean. “Serviceable with upside” is exactly the kind of defense you want when your offense can score in chunks.

Notre Dame’s good—of course they are. CJ Carr is talented, but it’s still his first start, and he doesn’t have Riley Leonard’s bruiser run element. Jeremiyah Love is a stud, Malachi Fields helps the WR room, and the OL is solid even if right guard is still a question. The Irish defense is legit up front—deep rotation, real bite—and the secondary has length. This is a true trench fight: Miami’s OL vs. ND’s DL is heavyweight stuff.

So what decides it? Explosives and poise. If Beck gets his usual clean pockets, Miami can stress ND vertically and force Carr to answer drive for drive—hard ask for a first start on the road. If ND mashes and turns it into a phone-booth game, different story. I’m betting Miami’s weapons and protection tilt it.