THE MODEL’s 2025 BIG10 Season Predictions

Sorry Purdue & Maryland fans...

Intro

Let’s be honest — the Big Ten is not what it fucking used to be.

A conference that once had 10 teams (Midwest-ish) now has 18 and spans the entire damn country. And with that expansion comes an insane influx of talent. The days of Ohio State and Michigan running the show uncontested? Over.

2025 has a real chance to shake things up in a way we haven’t seen in years. The quarterback play is stacked, the rosters are loaded, and a whole bunch of teams are ready to swing — some for the fences, some straight into the dirt.

So the question is: Who’s regressing? Who’s running it back? And who the hell is about to go nuclear?

THE MODEL broke down every single game on the Big Ten slate — and this is how it shaped up. Now, is it perfect? No. If it was, I’d be living in an apartment in Monaco watching the F1 race every year from my balcony. But I do think we have some pretty hot takes that are absolutely within the conversation this year.

So take a look...

📈 The Contenders

🅾️ Ohio State (9–0)

No surprise here — THE MODEL loves Ohio State, as do most analytics. The Buckeyes are fresh off a national championship, return a loaded defense, and have arguably the best player in college football in Jeremiah Smith. On paper, they’re the clear favorite. And honestly? The model got this one right.

Except… there’s one thing holding me back from going all-in — and it’s the same thing that could derail several Big Ten contenders this year: the quarterback.

Julian Sayin steps in having never started a college football game. He’s the real deal — a former five-star who originally committed to Alabama before transferring to Ohio State after Saban’s retirement. But there’s no such thing as a “sure thing” at QB in Year 1.

If Sayin puts together a strong season, this team absolutely has the firepower to win the Big Ten and make another CFP run.

Will they go undefeated? Probably not. But in a perfect world? THE MODEL has them with the highest ceiling in the conference.

🦁 Penn State (8–1) & 🦆 Oregon (8–1)

These two teams are predicted to finish with the same record when it’s all said and done — but THE MODEL has Penn State edging out Oregon and playing Ohio State for the Big Ten crown.

We’ve got Ohio State beating Penn State, and Penn State beating Oregon, which puts both programs firmly in that “just missed it” tier… but make no mistake — these two are stacked.

Penn State brings experience, a nasty defense, and maybe the best backfield in the country. Drew Allar is back at QB — a legit top-tier guy in the conference — and he’s handing off to Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, who are both absolute problems. This team has the kind of balance and continuity you want heading into a bloodbath Big Ten schedule.

Oregon, on the other hand, is oozing with raw talent — but most of it is brand new.

Dante Moore, a former 5-star QB, transfers in from UCLA. He started 5 games at UCLA as a true freshman and put up some solid numbers. But the real W? He spent a year learning under college vet and now-NFL QB Dillon Gabriel. That kind of mentorship matters — and we’ll see if it shows this fall.

Oh — and Oregon brought in Makhi Hughes from Tulane. He’s a fucking stud. Don’t believe me? Go look up his stats.

So yeah, Penn State and Oregon are the next two in line behind Ohio State according to THE MODEL. But if Ohio State stumbles — either one of these teams could absolutely win the conference.

🧨 The Wildcards

🌽 Nebraska (7–2)

Here we go again — another team loaded with returning production and some serious momentum.

Nebraska is staring down a potential program flip, and it starts with Pat Mahomes wannabe Dylan Raiola at quarterback. He’s the most hyped QB in Lincoln since, well… maybe ever. And unlike most Big Ten squads, Nebraska’s path to 10+ wins is legit.

Looking at the schedule, there are only two games where they’ll likely be significant underdogs — one is Penn State, and the other depends on how things shake out between Michigan and Minnesota. That’s it. The rest? Winnable.

And Raiola’s not doing it alone. The offensive line might actually be a strength — they brought in transfers from Notre Dame and Alabama, and that group could absolutely give him the time he needs to shine. If this kid lives up to even half the hype? Shit could get scary.

Defensively, they lost one major piece in Ty Robinson, but they loaded up from the portal, pulling serious talent from smaller conferences. They didn’t just plug holes — they built depth.

All I’m saying is — watch the fuck out. You laugh now, but I’ll be picking your jaw off the floor when Nebraska’s still alive in the playoff hunt come November. Or better yet — contending for the damn Big Ten title.

🌾 Illinois (6–3) & 🐿️ Minnesota (6–3)

I’ve already said so much about these teams I don’t feel like repeating myself. Literally look at any other fucking article and you’ll know why these teams are here. Just know this: THE MODEL isn’t wrong for having both these teams toward the top.

🤷 The Question Marks

〽️ Michigan (6–3)

THE MODEL has Michigan going 6–3 in conference, and I really do think 8–4 overall is not only possible — it’s probably what Michigan fans should be hoping for.

This is not the same team that won the natty two years ago. They lost major pieces to the draft — Will Johnson, Colston Loveland, just to name a few — and the depth behind them isn’t what it used to be.

But the real issue?

QB. Fucking. Trouble.

If Michigan starts slow — and I expect them to — we’ll probably see Bryce Underwood under center early. He’s insanely talented, no doubt. But if he struggles? Don’t be shocked if they start shuffling QBs again just like they did last season.

And how did that go? It was a disaster. So much so that Alex Orji, who was the day-one starter, ended up transferring.

I’m not saying Michigan is cooked — I’m just saying the data and returning production paint a clear picture. They were shaky last year (not bad, just... not solid), and they didn’t do enough to fix the problems they already had.

Now — I know that sounds like some pessimist shit. Because yes, Bryce Underwood could absolutely ball out and become the next Michigan QB star.

But the truth is, there’s just too much we don’t know right now to pencil them in as a title contender. Not yet.

And personally? I think that’s completely fair.

🔴🦬 Indiana (7–2)

This Indiana team was what every small college basketball team hopes to be in March Madness last season — a Cinderella.

You’ve seen Cignetti adopt the SEC non-conference strategy — scheduling teams that don’t even have locker rooms. That could definitely help their cause.

But as much as I could see Indiana repeat their magical 2024 season, I could also see them have a major regression in 2025.

Fernando Mendoza takes over at QB after transferring from Cal, where he somehow completed nearly 70% of his passes behind a dog shit offensive line. Indiana also brought in new backs to try and stop the bleeding after major offensive turnover.

But the defense? It’s loaded. There are All-Americans at nearly every position, and on paper, this team deserves to be ranked in the Top 15.

So yeah, they could absolutely do it again. But I wouldn’t be shocked if THE MODEL’s prediction is a little too optimistic and this team takes a step back.