Crack the Backdoor: Week 0 Picks Before Everyone Gets Smart

Intro

Welcome back to college football — where hope is high, logic is low, and if you’re reading this, you’re already too deep to stop.

Week 1 (or Week 0 for the purists) isn’t about marquee matchups or playoff implications. It’s about sweat. It’s about blindly trusting returning production metrics you don’t fully understand. It’s about degeneracy — and we’re here for all of it.

On deck for August 23rd:

• Iowa State @ Kansas State: Avery Johnson.

• Fresno State @ Kansas: Jayhawks have expectations now. Scary stuff.

• Sam Houston @ Western Kentucky: Do you know who Sam Houston’s QB is? Neither do we. Doesn't matter.

• Stanford @ Hawai’i: No one’s watching this unless they bet it. Which we did.

Here’s THE MODEL's breakdown for each game, plus the one pick we’d ride even if we had a gun to our head.

Let’s crack the Backdoor and get this thing started.

Iowa State @ Kansas State

The BIG12 favorite against what could be a sneaky Iowa State squad. THE MODEL gives Kansas State and their experienced roster the edge at home.

Model: Kansas State -4.8 | Line: Kansas State -3.5 (-102)

Lean: Kansas State -3.5

Fresno State @ Kansas

Yea I mean I don't have high expectations for Kansas this year but with a healthy Jalen Daniels THE MODEL doesn't see the Bulldogs putting up much of a fight.

Model: Kansas -13.1 | Line: Kansas -12.5 (-115)

Lean: Kansas -12.5 (slight)

Sam Houston @ Western Kentucky

Like we said, who really gives a shit. Bet it if you hate yourself, THE MODEL's not as high on Western Kentucky as the books are.

Model: Western Kentucky -5 | Line: Western Kentucky -9.5 (-122)

Lean: Sam Houston +9.5

Stanford @ Hawai'i

They say Hawai'i's home field matters. THE MODEL says Stanford still sucks less. Big gap here.

Model: Stanford -6.3 | Line: Hawai'i -1.5 (-115)

Lean: Stanford +1.5

🔒Backdoor Lock🔒

Stanford +1.5

We genuinely think the books have this one wrong — THE MODEL has it flipped, and not by a little. Stanford is -6.3 on our sheet, yet the Cardinal are underdogs. Make it make sense.

Everyone’s buzzing about Micah Alejado after his 469-yard, 5-TD torch job on New Mexico. That’s absurd no matter who you play. He could be a gem — no doubt. But early in the season, you’ve got to lean on what we actually know.

Stanford brings back almost its entire defense, with the youngest starter being a sophomore. Were they bad last year? Absolutely. But continuity matters, and they’re 9th nationally in returning defense. If that unit can keep them in it, this turns into a slugfest.

The question marks are real — Elijah Brown takes over at QB, the whole WR room is new, and losing Ayomanor to the NFL hurts. But this is not a cupcake Hawaii trip. If the defense travels, Stanford’s live here.