Model vs. Media: How Our Top 25 Stacks Up Against the AP Poll
- Brandon Uhlmeyer
- Aug 13
- 9 min read
Intro
The AP Poll is officially out, ranking the top 25 teams heading into the preseason. So how does it work? Around 60+ media members from across the country each submit their personal Top 25 ballot. Teams earn points based on where they’re placed — 25 points for a first-place vote, 24 for second, all the way down to 1 point for 25th. Once all the ballots are in, the points are totaled, and voilà — the AP Top 25.
In short, it’s the media’s collective opinion on who the strongest teams are heading into the season. And honestly, they did a pretty solid job this year.
That said, this article isn’t here to pat the AP on the back. It’s here to see how their rankings stack up against THE MODEL. We’ll highlight the value differences between the media’s poll and the numbers — and dig into why our model sees some teams very differently. The layout is simple: our Top 25 on one side, the AP ranking right next to it.
The Comparison
I still firmly believe people are too low on Alabama this year. There isn’t a single transferred starter on defense, and the lowest-class player is a sophomore — no freshman AT ALL. Yea there deep... like really deep.
And if you’re not familiar with the Alabama offense this year, go look at our fucking articles.
Yeah, I mean… this one’s pretty self-explanatory.
So we weren’t tripping — the consensus is that this team should definitely be in the Top 25 this year. But damn, what a fucking difference that is. Obviously, I don’t wholeheartedly agree that Ole Miss is the second-best team in the country. However, I still think they’re ranked too low in the AP, sitting behind Kansas State, Florida, SMU, and Michigan.
I genuinely think the model could be right about Ole Miss shaking things up this season. The likely reason they’re so high in our rankings? A combination of their unexpectedly strong season last year, plus finishing #4 in the transfer portal rankings and #16 in recruiting. This team is going to be fucking slippery and sneaky imo.
I think THE MODEL has LSU exactly where they should be — firmly in the Top 5 conversation. And if you disagree, THE MODEL would call you a dumb fuck and hit you with the receipts: outstanding returning production, a Heisman-level QB, and the #1 transfer portal ranking. Yea, yea… you get it.
THE MODEL might be slightly overvaluing Oregon based on their undefeated Big Ten run last season and just a single loss overall. But honestly, this difference feels pretty negligible. Oregon is raw, dangerous, and fucking loaded with both returning and incoming talent.
Another head-scratcher — and to be honest, I’m not totally convinced THE MODEL has them perfectly ranked here. They finished #11 in the portal, #9 in recruiting, and are coming off a strong season where a couple more close wins easily could’ve put them in the CFP. THE MODEL just happens to like them a little bit more.
Pretty close to the AP rankings here. With the addition of Carson Beck and C.J. Daniels, this offense looks absolutely loaded — and in the ACC, the only real competition seems to be Clemson and SMU. THE MODEL has them this high because they dominated the portal with a #3 ranking and brought in a ton of strong plug-and-play guys ready to make a push.
If Penn State and Ole Miss switched spots, I think we’d be heading in a much more accurate direction. But that’s not the point of THE MODEL. THE MODEL uses fucking data — the AP rankings are opinions, and we don’t give a shit about opinions here.
Yes, this team is absolutely stacked on both sides of the ball. Yes, Allar is in the Heisman conversation. And sure, they weren’t even in the top 40 in the portal — but let’s be honest, they didn’t need to be.
I don’t mind Georgia at #9 here — I think this team is going to be every bit as strong as they’ve always been. THE MODEL is right to leave a little breathing room to see just how big of a hole Carson Beck left in this offense. That said, Gunnar Stockton is absolutely capable of filling — and maybe even exceeding — the expectations of the role.
I seriously question how Texas is sitting at #1 in the AP. I just don’t think this team has the same offensive firepower it had last year — they lost Isiah Bond, Matthew Golden, and Jaydon Blue. Sure, CJ Baxter will get his shot this season alongside Quintrevion, and we’ll see a lot more of Arch Manning, the preseason Heisman favorite.
But let’s be real — last year, the games where Arch actually got reps were against Colorado State, UTSA, UL-Monroe, Mississippi State, Georgia, and Florida. Not exactly a murderers’ row of SEC powerhouses. I feel like Texas should be nowhere near #1 in the AP poll (I know, hot fucking take).
Notre Dame lost Riley Leonard — a guy they consistently relied on to fight for every inch on the football field. He had an unbelievable 17 rushing TDs, which kept defenses guessing and made this offense so dangerous.
Now? In steps CJ Carr, the redshirt freshman. Big fucking shoes to fill, but he’ll have help from Notre Dame’s always-strong defense, Jeremiyah Love, and an easier schedule than most teams in the Top 25.
#12 Missouri - AP NR (did receive 33 votes)
We’ve got our first scorching hot take in this comparison — Missouri isn’t even ranked in the AP Top 25. So why does THE MODEL have them so high? Simple: they absolutely crushed the transfer portal, finishing with a #7 ranking. They’re bringing in Pribula at QB and the most elusive rusher in all of college football, Ahmad Hardy from UL-Monroe.
And let’s not forget — this team went 5-3 in the SEC last year and finished 10-3 overall. “But Backdoor, they lost Luther Burden III.” Shut your damn mouth. He had a very average season — 676 yards and 6 TDs — numbers I think this current core can easily match. Missouri WILL finish in the Top 25.
Hey well would you look at that shit, we finally agree on something. I’m assuming for the same reasons as well. LANORRIS SELLERS. That’s all… and even the AP couldn’t fuck this one up.
This is where THE MODEL might be weighing last year’s performance a little too heavily. I do think this team should be talked about a bit lighter than last season. But Cignetti is building this program into one that’s going to be successful for a long time.
They were outside the top 45 in recruiting and barely cracked the Top 25 in the portal — but they return an absolutely stellar defense. The real question is… will the offense still hold?
I genuinely believe this team will be better than most people think. The loss of Nico might actually be a good thing — he was painfully average. They return what definitely has a shot to be the best defense in the SEC and bring in Joey Aguilar, who holds just about every passing record at App State.
#16 Auburn - AP NR (did receive 10 votes)
Auburn got rid of Peyton Thorne — which is huge, because he sucks — and last year they managed to lose just about every close game they played. Call it unlucky, call it lack of experience, call it whatever the fuck you want.
But now Jackson Arnold takes the reins, and he’s already proven he can be a solid QB in the SEC. I think fortune favors the Tigers this year, and they definitely improve.
Not too far off here. John Mateer comes in from Washington State, where he absolutely dominated. Jaden Ott joins from Cal at RB after a strong season. And on defense? Only one transfer starter. They’ll improve — and clearly, the AP agrees.
Yeah, THE MODEL is wrong on this one for sure. I’ve glazed the Tigers over and over, and the only reason they’re this low is because Dabo doesn’t touch the portal. But much like Penn State, they didn’t need to. This is Dabo’s team to win the natty.
That said, recent Tiger seasons have led to early disappointment — so let’s see if they’re the real deal this time around. (They will be.)
This team is expensive and absolutely loaded. Their offense looks primed to win the Big 12, and if the defense can hold — or even marginally improve on last year’s numbers — they should be the split favorites with Arizona St to take the conference by the halfway point of the season.
The Gators are good, and Lagway was definitely trending in the right direction last year before bursting into the Heisman conversation. But dear god, look at their schedule — it’s an absolute gauntlet, easily one of the top three hardest in all of college football.
Yes, they might have the firepower to get it done… but will their schedule even let them breathe? If Florida is still ranked in the Top 25 when it’s all said and done, I’ll be surprised — and they should celebrate what would be an exceptional season. I think THE MODEL got this one right.
#21 Arkansas - AP NR (didn't receive any votes)
So this could be our first big whiff in THE MODEL rankings… or maybe we’re seeing things the experts wouldn’t even consider (highly unlikely). They finished #16 in the portal rankings and retained their highlight-reel QB, Taylen Green.
The defense left plenty to be desired last year but should still improve — and let’s not forget, they knocked off then–#4 Tennessee. This team can definitely get it done.
I feel like this is an acceptable range between the rankings. Michigan comes into this season with just as many question marks as last year — and potentially a downgrade on defense.
Lots of questions here, but there’s huge upside potential if Underwood proves his NIL worth.
I feel like the AP is forgetting just how magical their season was last year. They had an absolute Cinderella run and came up just short of an ACC title against Clemson.
That said, they were average in both recruiting and the portal. But Kevin Jennings returns after a phenomenal 2024 breakout season, and this team is definitely in the ACC race.
Much like Clemson and Penn State, the Illini might have fallen in THE MODEL because of their portal performance and recruiting. But, just like those aforementioned teams, Illinois is stacked with returning veteran talent this year — and they’re absolutely poised to make a run at the Big Ten championship.
#25 Iowa - AP NR (did receive 5 votes)
This Iowa team is strong this year. Their defense is going to be stellar as ever, and the loss of Cade McNamara could actually be the best thing that’s ever happened to this program. Gronkowski replaces him at QB after coming from the always-dominant South Dakota State Jackrabbits at the FCS level.
Beside him is a solid group of receivers and — I’ll say it again — an absolutely veteran defense. Oh, and what happened to McNamara? ETSU happened. Iowa probably won’t finish in the Top 25 because the Big Ten is so fucking strong, but they’ll definitely improve on last year’s performance.
The Most Underrated Teams in the AP Top 25
Ole Miss: Differential of +18
Texas A&M: Differential +13
Tennessee: Differential +9
The Most Overrated Teams in the AP Top 25
Iowa St: Differential of -21
Boise St: Differential of -20
Kansas St: Differential of -17
Who is missing in our rankings from the AP Top 25?
THE MODEL believes all of the above teams didn’t bring in enough help through the portal or recruiting to maintain or improve upon their seasons from last year.
Except ASU — I think they’ll definitely be dangerous this year. Usually, the SP+ rankings (which helped build this model) identify the strongest teams in college football, not necessarily the ones most likely to stay in the Top 25. Hence some large discrepancies in the rankings.
Take Boise State, for example — they fell lower in THE MODEL because even if they dominate the Mountain West (likely, and something that would normally warrant a Top 25 spot), they’d still lose out comparatively to some of the top-ranked teams in the country.
What this says about THE MODEL
THE MODEL clearly favors teams with strong transfer portals over those with strong recruiting — which is exactly how it was designed. Think about it: if Texas brings in the #1 recruiting class, plus a lot of returning players and incoming transfers, how many true freshmen will be starters? The answer is zero. Sure, they add depth, but recruits are further out than a one-year predictor.
Transfers, on the other hand, are usually immediate starters — plug-and-play guys who can give a team an instant boost. That’s why teams like Ole Miss, LSU, and Miami are so high.
But that raises the question: what about strong teams that didn’t bring in a lot of transfers, like Penn State and Clemson? Obviously, these rankings will adjust weekly alongside the AP. Still, I’ll be interested to see if what THE MODEL truly values ends up showing real correlation among some of its higher-ranked teams this season.
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