Data-Backed Degeneracy: Our Official Preseason Top 25

Intro

Lets just get one thing straight right off the rip - these aren't your drunk step dad's AP rankings.

This is Backdoor cover, and we don't care about preseason hype videos or who paid the most for their team.

So what your 4 star recruit posted pictures on his Instagram in a Lambo, we don't give a shit.

We built these rankings using our custom model - a blend of last years rankings, returning production, recruiting rankings, strength of schedule and a bunch of other shit you don't care about.

You might disagree with this list and frankly I feel like a dumbass looking at some of these teams and where they are. Are we right? Maybe. Just don't come crying when your team gives up a backdoor cover as a 32.5 point favorite week 1.

2025 Preseason Top 25

1. Alabama Crimson Tide

   I’ve seen them ranked as high as 1 and as low as 19 — so someone’s clearly tripping, we just don’t know who yet. Saban left and the team naturally slid backwards. Shocking, I know — really needed a degree to figure that one out.

   That said, there’s still a lot to like. Jam Miller’s a stud, Ryan Williams is already terrifying, and the defense is stacked with seniors who’ve probably seen some things. The big question? Ty Simpson. He’s set to replace Milroe, and if he somehow loses to Vanderbilt, I’ll start sweating. Until then, Bama’s still Bama.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes

   Coming off a championship, a lot of people are questioning if this squad will still be as dominant. Those people are morons. This team is still stacked to the nines.

   They’ve got arguably the best player in college football in Jeremiah Smith. Yeah, they lost a few senior studs like Will Howard and the wife beater Quinshon Judkins — but they’re bringing in serious firepower. Julian Sayin is set to take over at QB, and if he lives up to half the hype, this offense is going to cook.

   The D-line might be a little soft, but they’ve got enough weapons to blow most teams off the field anyway.

3. Ole Miss Rebels

   This one frankly has me scratching my head wondering if I was blackout drunk when I built this model. Ole Miss lost their best player in Jaxson Dart, who carried them to a 10-3 season. Replacing him is Austin Simmons — and only a true degenerate would expect him to be even half as good. But here we are. Lane Kiffin still runs the show, and they brought in the #4-ranked transfer portal class for 2025. This team is either criminally underrated… or I need to stop drinking while making these models. Only time will tell.

4. LSU Tigers

   It should come to no surprise that this team is ranked in the top 5, they're all old as shit. This is the year LSU finally has all their seniors experienced and ready to make a run. Garrett Nussmeier is high up the list to win the Heisman this year and they boast the #1 ranked transfer class in the country. This team will potentially have the best offense in the country so it's really up to their defense that struggled last year. If LSU isn't in the CFB playoffs I'll be shocked and will definitely hit the bar scene for an ungodly amount of drinks wondering where it all went wrong. So either way it really is a win win. SUCK THAT TIGER DICK BITCH.

5. Oregon Ducks

   Another team I might have ranked too high — but this is objective. We don’t give a shit about your feelings over here at Backdoor Cover. The Ducks were dominant last year, going 13-0 in the regular season and winning the Big Ten title under Dillon Gabriel. And honestly? This year’s team might be even better. Makhi Hughes (dope ass name) transfers in from Tulane and runs like a damn dump truck. At QB, former 5-star Dante Moore steps in to replace Gabriel — and if he lives up to the hype, this offense could be nasty. If you don’t think Oregon can win the natty, it might be time to put the weed pen down.

6. Texas A&M Aggies

   Let’s be real — this team hasn’t been dominant since Money Manziel was running around hungover and smelling like your girlfriend’s perfume. They went 8–5 last year. Not terrible, but nothing to write home about. This year, though? They’ve added some legit firepower. Marcel Reed returns and finally gets the nod to start Week 1. He was solid last year — let’s see what another full offseason does for the kid. Kevin Concepcion (which, let’s be honest, doesn’t even sound like a real last name) transfers in from NC State where he was that guy. Le’Veon Moss is healthy, which needs to stay the case if this team has any shot at contending. Much like Ole Miss, this team is either going to be sneaky spectacular… or turn into a full-blown dumpster fire and lose to Mississippi State at home in front of 90,000 drunk cousin kissers.

7. Miami Hurricanes

   This team went brazy last year and looked playoff-bound… until they shit the bed late and missed the ACC Championship. Despite that, they were easily the best team in the conference — led by #1 overall pick and certified baller Cam Ward. Now they come into 2025 with more anticipation than any team in the country. Why? Because they absolutely cooked in the transfer portal. Carson Beck (from Georgia) and CJ Daniels (from LSU) are massive pickups. Whether or not Beck transferred to follow his girlfriend and got dumped is a debate for another day — but if he can manage to not suck like he did in Athens, this team could walk away with the ACC.

8. Penn State Nittany Lions

   “Why is Penn State so low on this list? ESPN has them at #1.” SHUT YOUR STUPID ASS UP. I know, I’m confused too. But fuck it, we ball. This team is older than your great auntie and brings back what many call the best QB in the Big Ten: Drew Allar. Oh, and both of their stud RBs — Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton — are back too. Allar was lights-out most of last season, but made some boneheaded decisions late against Notre Dame that nuked their year. SUCK IT, PENN STATE FANS. They also went and added Jim Knowles as defensive coordinator — the same dude who just won a natty with Ohio State. Yeah… reading that back, I don’t know why I have them at #8 either. Whatever.

9. Georgia Bulldogs

   Finally — Georgia isn't #1 in the preseason polls. Refreshing, isn’t it? Should they be all the way down here at #9? I don't fucking know, honestly. They weren’t bad last year, but they definitely weren’t the death machine we’ve seen in past seasons. Maybe Carson Beck had his head buried in his phone staring at pictures of his ex all season — who’s to say? Either way, that problem’s gone. Beck is out, and Gunnar Stockton is in. He looked solid when Beck went down late last year, so there shouldn’t be much of a drop-off. They finally got some help at receiver, too. Zachariah Branch transfers in from USC to give Georgia the explosive WR threat they desperately lacked. Oh, and they added Elijah Griffin, the #1 DT prospect in the country. So yeah — this team might be a problem again. Sorry in advance.

10. Texas Longhorns

    Alright, this one might need a little explaining.

    Pretty much everywhere you look, Texas is projected to absolutely splooge on the SEC this season. I’m not so sure. Arch Manning probably said it best himself — he hasn’t done enough to deserve all this attention. Sure, he’s a Manning. That’s cool. And yeah, I sometimes eat an entire party-size bag of Doritos in one sitting. My point? Nobody gives a shit. He’s talented, no doubt. But he had very limited exposure to SEC-level defenses last year. Now he’s stepping into the spotlight behind a line that’s replacing 4 of 5 starters. Thankfully, the kid can scramble. He’ll need to. They also lost their entire receiving core — Isiah Bond and Matthew Golden? Dead and gone. The replacements are solid, but don’t expect the same kind of dominance. Texas might still be a contender… but let’s pump the brakes before we crown them kings of the SEC.

11. Notre Dame

    Everybody loves a fall from grace, don’t they? I personally do — especially when it’s Notre Dame. This team went all the way last year, only to have their hopes and dreams crushed by possibly the most hated team in college football. Riley Leonard was dope. Marcus Freeman? Stud. The dude’s 39 years old and already tearing up college football.

    Now, if you’re one of those people who loves screaming about Notre Dame’s cupcake schedules every year — go ahead, get it out of your system. Done yelling at your screen, you fucking loser? Good. They return Jeremiyah Love, a certified beast at RB, but lost their presumed next QB to Syracuse in the portal. Must be some honeys out in New York. Oh — and they’re replacing 3 starters on the O-line and might be starting freshman CJ Carr at QB. Oooooooo spooky.

12. Missouri Tigers

    Another one that’ll have people calling me a dumbass — and honestly, they might be right. Or maybe I’m just levitating in a dimension of college football knowledge you simpletons can’t even begin to comprehend. Mizzou finished 9–3 last year. For them? That’s phenomenal. But now they lose Brady Cook at QB and allegedly the best WR in college football, Luther Burden III. Pop quiz: how many of their wins were by one score or less? Six. Yeah, six, you idiot. Put ChatGPT away. Last year they had a steady QB and a kicker with a third leg. That combo bailed them out more times than not. If they can’t win those tight ones again, things might spiral fast. The QB battle is still up in the air, but Beau Pribula (from Notre Dame) transfers in and should keep them afloat. They also picked up Ahmad Hardy from UL-Monroe — who, by the way, had over 200 carries and led the entire country in missed tackles forced (in the Sun Belt, but still).

    This team is a coin flip. Wild upside… or a free fall to 6–6.

13. South Carolina Gamecocks

    YEA GO COCKS! Now that that’s out of my system… This team is for the boys — a squad of Cocks riddled with highlight-reel talent. The walkout to Sandstorm by Darude never fails to get me harder than Portland cement. Anyway, before this gets flagged, let’s talk football. LaNorris Sellers is back for his senior season, and last year he looked like he was being controlled by a Madden player who’d unlocked God Mode. Straight video game shit. They also brought in some serious help on defense through the portal, loading up for what could be a legit SEC run. But here’s the problem — the schedule is beat. Like, 4 out of 10 beat. They’ve got Mizzou, LSU, Ole Miss, and A&M all on the road. Brutal. If they want to make a run, they better get real comfy playing away from Columbia — or this dream season’s going limp real quick.

14. Indiana Hoosiers

    You read that right — put your glasses down, four-eyes. Indiana was a full-blown shocker last year. New head coach Curt Cignetti completely flipped the program on its head. He even said he's adopting an SEC-style non-conference schedule, which is code for "we’re gonna feast on legit shitters before getting stomped by Ohio St."

    They dipped deep into the portal trying to keep this fever dream alive for a second straight year. Fernando Mendoza (Cal) transfers in to take over at QB, and a revamped O-line plus a defense with serious returning talent should help this WR core pop off again. Could this be the biggest meltdown in college football history? Absolutely. But they were simply too good last season to leave out of the Top 15. Just let the chaos unfold.

15. Tennessee Volunteers

    This is the team everyone swears has the potential to win the SEC… and then they never do. I’m here to do it again. Before Josh Heupel, this program was a total embarrassment. But in the last two years? He’s brought them back into relevance. The Volunteers enter 2025 with what might be the best defense in the SEC, returning 12 of 25 starters — including absolute brick wall Joshua Josephs. Now here’s the twist: they lost Nico Iamaleava (good luck pronouncing that shit) to UCLA. But let’s be real — he was mid. In comes Joey Aguilar, a UCLA transfer who previously played at App State — where he set the single-season records for both passing yards and passing TDs in 2023.

    Yeah, I think that might actually be an upgrade. I’ve personally never had some good ol’ Rocky Top… but I’m always down to try new things. Go Vols.

16. Auburn Tigers

    As an MSU fan, I was glad to see Auburn struggle. Watching Payton Thorne still have no clue who was on his team — even in the SEC — was oddly comforting.

    This squad was basically the opposite of Missouri last year. Remember how Mizzou won all their close games? Yeah, well Auburn didn’t — and they limped to an embarrassing 5–7 finish. But 2025? This team’s turning it around. Jackson Arnold transfers in from Oklahoma, where he stunned Alabama last season. In my opinion, that’s a massive upgrade from Payton Thorne. There’s a reason Thorne’s now an undrafted free agent: he fucking sucks. This Auburn roster has potential everywhere — from wide receivers and RBs to a rebuilt defensive line and legit secondary. This time, they’ll close the door in tight games. And they might just wreck some seasons in the process.

17. Oklahoma Sooners

    I actually got into an argument the other day with some dumbass about whether Oklahoma or Florida has the hardest schedule in college football. Looking back… it doesn’t matter. They’re both fucked. But here’s the thing — the last time Oklahoma was this bad, they turned around and won a natty the next year. (Yes, that would be this year, you dumbass.) This squad is poised. Brent Venables finally has the defense humming, returning almost the entire secondary — six players to be exact. And while the offense was flat-out putrid last season, Venables made real moves to fix it.

    He brought in John Mateer from Washington State, along with his OC Ben Arbuckle. Mateer threw for 3,139 yards and ran for 1,032 (not even counting sacks). If the offensive line holds up and the WRs stay healthy, this team could be dangerous. Realistically, their success will come down to whether their brutal schedule lets them breathe.

18. Clemson Tigers

    Let’s be honest — the Tigers (and Dabo Swinney) haven’t looked like themselves since the Trevor Lawrence era. Every year, this team is absolutely stacked, primed to win a natty… and every year, they disappoint. So what’s new this year? Absolutely fucking nothing. This roster is loaded. Cade Klubnik returns for his final season and is already being hyped as a legitimate Heisman candidate. He’s got a strong group of weapons in Antonio Williams and Bryant Wesco Jr., and the offensive line is one of the most experienced in college football. But the backfield? That’s another story. Losing Phil Mafah and an injury to Jay Haynes leaves this RB room thin. Meanwhile, Dabo continues being a stubborn southerner stuck in 2015 — bringing in 4 transfers. Yes, four. Coastal Carolina had a higher ranked transfer portal grade. The only real addition is Tom Allen (ex-Penn State DC), which should help a defense that somehow struggled against the run last year — despite the D-line now being arguably the best in the country. Why are they ranked this low? Because they don’t win, dumbass. Start winning, and maybe you move up. That’s how this shit works.

19. Texas Tech Red Raiders

    This is the most expensive team in college football — with a roster that supposedly cost something fucking ridiculous like $28 million. So let’s see if CFB really is pay to win. Jokes aside, I’m genuinely curious about this squad. They threw money at transfers like they were strippers, and it shows — especially on defense. That same defense was Swiss cheese last season — absolutely riddled with holes, giving up 35+ points in each of their losses. IN THE BIG 12. Like… what are we doing here, guys? Behren Morton returns at QB after recovering from an injury that might as well have been healed with fairy dust. The real gem might be Quinten Joyner, a transfer RB from USC who could become the guy this season. With Texas and Oklahoma out of the picture, the Big 12 is there for the taking — and Texas Tech has the bankroll and the talent to do it. But hey, if they blow it, at least they’ll be the most expensive 6–6 team in history.

20. Florida Gators

    This team is absolutely riddled with talent, and like Oklahoma, they’re going to spend the entire season in a fucking chokehold thanks to that beat ass schedule. Billy Napier’s butthole is clenched tighter than a jar of pickles, and for good reason — his job may live or die by DJ Lagway’s ability to survive the SEC. Now, Lagway is definitely talented, but year one wasn’t exactly jaw-dropping: under 2,000 passing yards, 12 TDs, and 9 picks. Kind of a mid stat line, let’s be honest. That said, the Gators return much of their offensive line, two stud RBs, and a legit WR group. And they balled out to close 2024, knocking off #22 LSU and #9 Ole Miss. If they can ride that momentum into this season, they just might keep their pants on when they face LSU, Miami, A&M, and Ole Miss — all on the road. Yeah… yikes.

21. Arkansas Razorbacks

    Yes, this will officially be the Year of CRANKING HOG. This team has been like looking at my shit-coin portfolio the last 3 years — way up, way down, and absolutely zero logic behind any of it. But last year? Flashes of greatness. They return Taylen Green at QB, who threw for over 3,000 yards. He’s a “chuck it and pray” type of guy — every snap is either a highlight bomb or a 3-pick, 1-fumble disaster. The majority of the O-line returns, which is solid, but most of the skill players (RB/WR) are brand new, which adds uncertainty. The defense? Lowkey decent last year — and they bring most of it back. But they didn’t do shit in the transfer portal, so don’t expect some wild leap forward on that side of the ball. Now apparently, this team has the 3rd-hardest schedule in the country. But with a chaos engine at QB and a scrappy returning defense, Arkansas can absolutely fuck up your favorite team’s season.

22. Michigan Wolverines

    I’d like to start this off by saying: SCUM! That’s all. For now. Now you know this shit is objective and facts driven, a Sparty fan has U of M up there. Jokes aside, this might be the most uncertain Michigan team we’ve seen in a long time. We watched them dominate with JJ McCarthy and win the natty in ‘23. Then last year, every Michigan fan’s worst nightmare came true: Who the fuck is their QB? Orji? Trash. Warren? Mid. Tuttle? Ass. And guess what — this year’s just as confusing. The #1 QB recruit, Bryce Underwood, took a fat NIL bag to commit (shoutout Dave Portnoy and his deep pockets). So who’s the starter? Still no clue. They do return a strong defense, as always. And picking up Justice Haynes from Bama in the portal definitely helps. But like last year… will the offense do anything? will they bench their starter after 3 games? will they pretend Harbaugh still doesn't have his nose up this programs ass? We'll find out. Until then, SCUM.

23. SMU Mustangs

    Another team that came swinging from the rafters last year. If you told me SMU would be in the ACC Championship Game in 2024, I would’ve called you batshit crazy. But here we are. Kevin Jennings became an unexpected stud after taking over at QB midway through the season — and led this team all the way to the CFP in their first year in the ACC. This offseason, SMU went portal hunting like maniacs, mostly to replace lost production on both sides of the ball. And they didn’t just get a few pieces. They brought in nine (yes, 9) defensive linemen — like they were trying to rebuild a second-string NFL team. They also scooped up T.J. Harden from UCLA at running back, who should be a solid contributor right away. If the ACC plays out like last year, expect Miami and Clemson to be the main threats. But hey — maybe Florida State finally got tired of working the street corner for change and decides to put up a fight. Until then, the Pony Express is rolling.

24. Illinois Fighting Illini

    The BIG10 might be making a serious comeback this year — and not just from the usual suspects. Illinois is definitely in the conversation as a BIG10 title sleeper after last year’s 10-3 season. And the craziest part? This year’s squad is basically a carbon copy of last year’s. They return the 3rd-most production in the country, trailing only Clemson and ASU. That includes: Senior QB Luke Altmyer, their ENTIRE O-line, and yes, their entire fucking secondary. They also made some key portal moves, grabbing Hudson Clement from West Virginia to plug in at WR, and adding depth to the defensive line. You’re looking at a team that went 10-3 and brought back 76% of the roster.

    Now I’m no fucking rocket scientist, but that sounds like a recipe for success in the BIG10. Want a sleeper to root for? Illinois is your squad.

25. Iowa Hawkeyes

    This team is especially intriguing to me because every year they roll out an absolutely lights-out defense, but somehow a quarterback wearing his helmet backwards manages to drag them into the deepest circle of football hell. Enter: Cade McNamara. A name Iowa fans probably can’t hear without rage blacking out. He started at Michigan, transferred to Iowa, and now somehow wound up at Eastern Tennessee State. Watch out, Tennessee — he’s coming for you next. Anyway, the good news is Iowa finally replaced the shit box with Mark Gronkowski, who looks like an actual upgrade. They’ve got a fantastic line on both sides of the ball again, which is no surprise — that’s always Iowa’s thing. The real problem lies in that nasty five-game stretch against Indiana, Penn State, Oregon, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Also not helping: they lost their best offensive weapon in Kaleb Johnson, which puts more pressure on Gronkowski to not completely shit the bed. If — and that’s a big if — Iowa can find a way to put together even a half-decent offense, this team could finish ranked and near the top of the BIG10. But history tells us they’ll probably blow it in a 9-6 game that makes your eyes bleed.

If you read all of that, this is for you 1-800-GAMBLER