Our Heisman Picks for 2025 (One of These Will Hit, Probably)

Intro

Everyone’s betting on Arch Manning like the trophy’s already being engraved. Cool. Let ’em. Meanwhile, the Backdoor Cover model is eyeing some less obvious names — guys the books are undervaluing, the public’s ignoring, and your buddy Chad in the group chat hasn’t even heard of (unless Chad lives under a rock). No we're no betting on a reciever (Jeremiah Smith) to win the Heisman when his projected starting QB has thrown 12 career passes. Here are our 3 favorite Heisman bets heading into 2025. One of them might cash. Or all three might be the gambling equivalent of lighting your money on fire. Let’s ride.

1. Cade Klubnik +900 (FD)

   Now why do I think Cade can win the Heisman when I have Clemson ranked as the #18 team in the country? Because I’m fucking lost out here and I need a map, alright?

   Cade is 100% capable of winning the Heisman and is by far the best QB to come through Clemson’s powerhouse since Trevor Lawrence. Last season, he put up 3,639 passing yards, 36 touchdowns, and only 6 picks. On the ground, he added 463 yards and 7 more scores. That’s a damn impressive stat line — he almost beat out Phil Mafah for most rushing touchdowns on the team, for god’s sake. My point is, Cade can do it all. He’s a versatile quarterback who can tear defenses apart through the air and take off or run a QB design when he needs to.

   But here’s what makes the difference this year: all of his starting receivers are returning. First up, sophomore T.J. Moore — second on the team last year with 45 catches for 651 yards and 5 touchdowns. Then there’s sophomore Bryant Wesco Jr., who posted 41 catches for 708 yards and 5 scores of his own. And finally, the star: Antonio Williams. This dude is a touchdown machine. Last year, he racked up 75 catches for 904 yards and 11 touchdowns — tied for 7th-most in the country.

   The only real change on offense is at tight end, where Jake Briningstool is off to the draft after posting over 500 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2024. Stepping in is Olsen Patt-Henry, who still managed 9 catches for 121 yards and 3 touchdowns last year. He should be a solid red zone target for Cade this season.

   And lastly, the offensive line is loaded. All five starters are back, and four of them are seniors. Cade should have all the time in the world to make something happen back there. See a flaw in Cade’s Heisman campaign? Yeah, me neither.

2. Garrett Nussmeier +900 (FD)

   This dude is one of the best QBs the SEC has seen in quite a while, and he’s been absolutely swept under the rug. I truly don’t think people understand how good of a season he had last year. He threw for a stupid 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns — good enough for #2 all-time in LSU history for single-season passing yards, behind only Joe Burrow (who somehow had almost 1,600 more — how the fuck?). Those 4,052 yards also rank 10th all-time in single-season SEC history. So yeah, this kid can sling it. That’s not the problem.

   Let’s talk about what’s around him on offense. Aaron Anderson returns as a junior after leading the team last year with 61 catches for 884 yards and 5 touchdowns. He beat out Kyren Lacy (rest in peace) as Garrett’s favorite target. LSU also brought in some serious help through the portal. Nic Anderson was a huge get — he missed almost all of 2024 with a torn quad, but back in 2023 as a freshman, he posted 38 catches for 798 yards and 10 touchdowns, the most ever by a freshman in school history. If he’s fully healthy, he’ll be the deep threat.

   Barion Brown transfers in from Kentucky, where he was clearly WR2 but still managed 29 catches for 361 yards and 3 touchdowns — another solid SEC addition. At tight end, Trey’Dez Green takes over after Mason Taylor left for the draft. He only had 13 catches for 101 yards and 4 touchdowns last year, but now he’s the guy, and those numbers should jump.

   Now for the real issue in this otherwise beautiful Heisman equation: the offensive line. LSU lost four starters up front to the NFL, including top-5 pick Will Campbell. That leaves them with a line where the oldest players are sophomores. If the O-line holds up, Nussmeier has a real shot at the Heisman. If they fold, LSU’s season — and his Heisman campaign — go south really fucking fast.

3. Carson Beck +1800 (FD)

   I know I made some jokes about him in a couple other posts, but that’s all in good fun. Now I’m gonna glaze him and tell you why this kid can win the Heisman.

   Before transferring to Miami, he put up 3,485 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. That’s not a bad season in the SEC by any stretch of the imagination. He was playing in the hardest conference in college football and still putting up really solid numbers. But now? He moves to the third-hardest conference in CFB — the ACC (and if you don’t think the Big Ten and SEC are harder than the ACC, put down the liquor). So he’ll definitely be facing defenses with a much lower talent ceiling.

   Let’s take a look at his receiving core. Every wide receiver is stepping into a new starting role this year, but there’s still some upside. First, Joshisa Trader — he was already on the team last year and now steps into a starting role. He had a small contribution last year with 6 catches for 91 yards and a touchdown, so he’s not totally green. Next up, LSU transfer CJ Daniels. This dude is a stud who unfortunately had his 2024 season ruined by injuries, but back in 2023 he hauled in 1,067 yards and 10 touchdowns. If he stays healthy, he’s a certified weapon. Then there’s Tony Johnson, who transfers in from Cincinnati. He was Brendan Sorsby’s third favorite target but still managed 48 catches for 449 yards and 6 touchdowns — which led the team in receiving scores.

   At tight end, Elijah Arroyo is gone, but sophomore Elijah Lofton steps in. He only had 9 catches for 150 yards and a touchdown last year, but now he’s the guy. We’ll see how he handles the expanded role. And lastly — always lastly — the offensive line. Two starters return from last year: senior Anez Cooper and junior Francis Mauigoa. They also brought in senior James Brockermeyer, who’s played at both Alabama and TCU. The offensive line? Not a concern.

   So what does Carson Beck need to do to win the Heisman? Easy. Cut down on the picks. Last year, his 12 interceptions had him tied for the most in the SEC. If he cleans that up? No interceptions = Heisman for this guy. He just has to lock the fuck in.

TLDR:

Cade Klubnik returns with his full supporting cast. He’s dangerous through the air and on the ground — a perfect Heisman setup.

Garrett Nussmeier just had the second-best passing season in LSU history. His receivers are legit, but losing four O-line starters could derail it all.

Carson Beck posted solid numbers at Georgia and now moves to a weaker ACC. He’s got a strong receiver group and a solid O-line core with two returning starters and a veteran transfer center.