Power 4’s Silent Killers: 8 Teams That Might Ruin Your Team’s Season

Intro

Every year the same tired blue bloods get all the love in the preseason rankings. ESPN can't go five minutes without slobbering over the same six teams. But here at Backdoor Cover, we like to dig a little deeper (pun 100% intended). So instead of spoon-feeding you another “Top 10 teams most likely to win the natty” article written by a guy who still tucks in his polos, we’re giving you the real shit — two teams from each Power 4 conference that are flying under the radar and might just cook your favorite team alive. These aren’t your usual darlings, well some are. These are teams with legit rosters, chips on their shoulders, and just enough chaos potential to derail someone’s College Football Playoff dreams. Let’s get into it.

The 2 Most Slept-On Teams in Every Power 4 Conference

SEC

1. Alabama Crimson Tide

   This might come as a surprise — or not. Alabama has been all over the board in preseason rankings, and even the biggest sportsbooks have them as the 5th or 6th favorite to win it all. ARE YOU HIGH? Let’s be real — and Bama fans, cover your ears — Jalen Milroe sucked last year. Not Heisman-senior-season levels of suck, but still… mid. He finished with 16 touchdowns and 11 picks, and completely fell apart when it mattered most. In the loss to Vandy? 1 TD, 1 INT. Tennessee? 1 TD, 2 INTs. Oklahoma? 0 TDs, 3 INTs. Michigan? 1 TD, 1 INT. You get the idea. So yeah — Milroe being gone might actually be a good thing. Enter Ty Simpson, who didn’t get much action last year (just 25 attempts, 167 yards), but he’s got the keys now. And the setup around him is filthy. Ryan Williams is turning into a college football superstar, Jam Miller is a steady force at RB, and Alabama brings back a chunk of last season’s insanely efficient defense. Also: all of those teams that beat them last year — except Michigan — have to come to Tuscaloosa. And I’d bet a stupid amount of money they don’t lose all three again. DeBoer’s got this program humming, and people are sleeping way too hard. This might be the least “hot take” hot take I’ve had all year: Alabama is absolutely in play to win it all. How they handle Florida St week 1 will tell me everything I need to know about this team. Right now, they’re sitting at +1000 on FanDuel and +1100 on DraftKings to win the natty. If you believe like I do — that’s insane value.

2. Missouri Tigers

   Yeah, you thought I was gonna say Ole Miss, didn’t you? Dumbass. I was — but then I looked at where Missouri ended up in the rankings and thought, “Wait… should they really be that far down?” Everyone’s expecting a regression year after losing Brady Cook at QB and Luther Burden III at WR, and sure, you could say they got lucky in all those one-score wins. But they were in those games — consistently. That’s not luck. That’s a team that knows how to compete. As soon as Beau Pribula saw Drew Allar was sticking around at Penn State, he basically said, “fuck this, I’m out.” (Not a direct quote, but it might as well be.) Can you blame him? He now takes over, and honestly, I think he’s going to be a stud. At Penn State, he put up 5 passing TDs, 1 pick, and the more intriguing stat: 242 rushing yards and 4 TDs. We even saw him come in cold against Wisconsin and immediately throw for 98 yards and a score. He’s ready. And let’s not forget Missouri picked up Ahmad Hardy, the Derrick Henry of the Sun Belt — a total workhorse who made tacklers look silly at UL-Monroe. Do I think they’re winning the SEC? Fuck no. But can they finish higher than Auburn, Florida, Oklahoma, and South Carolina? Absolutely. Don’t count out the Tigers. FanDuel has their win total set at O6.5 (-148). Our model has them going 8-4. You do the math.

BIG10

1. Illinois Fighting Illini

   This team is criminally underrated — and for the life of me, I can't figure out why. Everyone at these sportsbooks must be puffin’ on that crack rock. Like we mentioned in our preseason rankings, Illinois is returning 76% of its production. Seventy. Six. Fucking. Percent. That’s the third-highest in the entire country. Luke Altmyer was lowkey awesome last year — 22 TDs to just 6 picks — and led the Illini to wins over three ranked teams: #19 Kansas, #22 Nebraska, and #15 South Carolina. The squad’s got legit firepower on both sides of the ball and with that much returning production, they’re going to hit the ground absolutely flying. As for their schedule? Honestly… pretty soft for a Big Ten slate. No Penn State, no Oregon, no Michigan. The biggest matchups are against Indiana, USC, and Ohio State — and if they play to their potential, they can absolutely repeat last year’s success (if not surpass it). So how the hell is Illinois behind Michigan, USC, Nebraska, and Iowa in Big Ten odds? That's straight-up disrespectful. FanDuel has their win total at O8.5 (+148). Our model has them going 10-2, with losses to Indiana and Ohio State. Yeah — run that number.

2. Minnesota Golden Gophers

   This team has me absolutely fired up for 2025. They played fan-fucking-tastic last year, finishing 7-5 in the regular season and snagging a bowl win over Virginia Tech. Now, 7-5 might not jump off the page — but look closer and tell me you’re not impressed.

   They lost to #12 Michigan by 3, beat #11 USC, beat #24 Illinois, and lost to #4 Penn State by 1. If that doesn’t get your attention, I’d love to know what you’re smoking.

   The wild part? They couldn’t run the ball for shit last year — something you never expect from a P.J. Fleck team. And the passing game wasn’t explosive enough to make up for it. But the defense? Rock solid. And it stayed mostly intact through the transfer portal. There are legit questions about Drake Lindsey, sure. But Darius Taylor returns at RB, and two key portal additions join him in the backfield. If Minnesota can just manage to score more than 25-26 points a game, they’re going to be a fucking problem.

   DraftKings has their win total at O7.5 (+130). Our model has them going 9-3, with losses to Ohio State, Iowa, and Oregon.

ACC

1. SMU Mustangs

   This team almost won the ACC in their first damn year in it. SMU took Clemson to the wire in a 34-31 ACC Championship loss, after going a perfect 8-0 in conference play and locking up the #1 seed. That’s absolutely insane considering most people expected them to be a middle-of-the-pack filler team. Kevin Jennings is back at QB after tossing for 3,245 yards, 23 TDs, and 11 picks, plus 354 rushing yards and 5 scores on the ground — and here’s the kicker: he wasn’t even the Day 1 starter. Once he took over, the offense exploded, scoring 40+ points four times. They added T.J. Harden from UCLA to shore up the backfield, and completely attacked their biggest weakness by bringing in a massive haul of defensive linemen from the portal. If this defense can even come close to what it was last year, SMU has a very real shot to win the ACC. Because this offense? They ain’t scared of shit. And they might be even better than last season. FanDuel has them at +950 to win the ACC, with a win total of O8.5 (-122).Our model? 9-3. Losses to TCU, Clemson, & Miami.

2. Florida State Seminoles

   Yeah, this is definitely a hot take. And it should be. Last season, I would’ve rather wiped my ass with poison ivy than watch this Florida State team. They were horrible right from the jump — and just when you thought it couldn’t get worse, it did. This team went 2-10. I don’t think you understand… they were a top 15 preseason pick to win it all and went TWO and fucking TEN. A genuinely historic meltdown. So what went wrong? All fingers point to DJ Uiagalelei. In the 5 games before he got benched, he threw for 1,065 yards, 4 TDs, and 6 picks. This was a former Clemson QB, by the way. He sucked so hard he left hickeys all over this program. And sure, the defense wasn’t great, but this team never scored more than 21 points all season… and that came in the opener. But this year, in walks Tommy Castellanos, the former Boston College starter who led the Eagles to a 13–11 record over the past two seasons. Last year he posted 18 TDs to just 5 picks, and frankly, FSU just needs someone competent at QB. They went through three last year. Castellanos might just be the knight in shining armor. They also added Gavin Sawchuk (RB, Oklahoma) and Squirrel White (WR, Tennessee) — yes, “Squirrel” — to give the offense a much-needed facelift. The defense holds onto a solid core from last year and shouldn’t be the liability this time around. FanDuel has FSU at +3100 to win the ACC, behind Georgia Tech and Duke (are you high?) and O7.5 wins at +164.Our model? 7-5. Losses to Alabama, Miami, Clemson, NC State, and Florida.

   But don’t be shocked if they upset one or two of those teams. It’s a real possibility.

BIG12

1. Arizona State Sun Devils

   Now you might be asking yourself, “ASU isn’t underrated — I saw they were in ESPN’s Top 25.” Well little Jimmy, ESPN’s power rankings don’t make you money. Dumbass.

   This team won the Big 12 in their first year in it and made the College Football Playoff — an absolutely massive season. So how’d they do it? Well… besides Cam Skattebo bulldozing everyone in sight, it was the defense that carried the load. This unit was top tier last year, and here’s the kicker: they return the second-highest production percentage in all of college football. Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson — both projected first-rounders — are back to run it again. Yeah, there’s a gaping Skattebo-sized hole in the backfield, and it remains to be seen who steps up there. But the defense is still gonna be rock solid, and the overall talent returning gives this team a real shot at another deep run. People are sleeping on them because of that one loss to Texas Tech — who, for the record, should be the clear favorite to win the Big 12. But don’t get it twisted, this Arizona State team is dangerous. FanDuel has ASU at +650 to win the Big 12, behind Utah and Baylor. Their win total is O8.5 @ +102. Our model has them going 10-2, with losses to Baylor and Texas Tech.

2. Colorado Buffaloes

   This shouldn’t come as any surprise: Coach Prime is hitting the reset button. Deion Sanders has officially lost all of his sons (not like that) — and with them, most of the talent that powered last year’s 9-3 regular season run. Travis Hunter won the Heisman. Shedeur had a monster season. But that chapter’s closed. So… what now? Let’s get one thing straight: there’s no replacing Travis Hunter. You just don’t plug that kind of freak talent back in. But what Colorado can do is get right back on track at QB. Kaidon Salter, the Liberty transfer, was dominant in 2023 — leading them to an undefeated regular season while throwing for 2,876 yards, 32 TDs, and just 6 picks. The dude is dialed in. Oh, and if Salter somehow doesn’t win the job? They’ve also got Julian Lewis, a 5-star recruit who’s already drawing NFL comparisons. Either way, QB is not the problem here. Yes, this team only returns 6 players total, but they crushed the portal — bringing in 30 new guys, including Hykeem Williams (WR, FSU) and Dekalon Taylor (RB, Incarnate Word). That’s some serious juice for an offense that was already electric. If the defense doesn’t completely fall off a cliff, and this new-look offense clicks? Colorado could be a real problem in the Big 12, especially with a fairly light schedule ahead. FanDuel has their win total at O5.5 wins @ -118. We’ve got them going 8-4, with losses to BYU, Iowa State, Arizona State, and Kansas State. I might be tripping sack on this one...